As expected, the prices for the material P250GH / C22.8 range in January are up 24% in January, despite some fluctuations in both directions towards the start of the holidays on the occasion of the Chinese New Year.
General price development for flanges and raw materials
- In the first decade of January, prices for P250GH rose by about 6% to 3,300 RMB / T then fell by exactly 6% to the start of the holidays.
- The downward trend in prices for coking coal started in December continued in January. It is expected that this trend will continue and that the sharp rise in prices in the second half of 2016 will be completely overhauled.
- In the case of stainless steel, however, price increases continued. This is inter alia. Due to the continuing increase in nickel and ferrochrome prices, which in turn has a noticeable effect on the alloy surcharges.
- At the LME, the price of nickel was US $ 10,500 at the end of January. It is not the question if, but how long the price can still be above the 10,000 mark.
Situation in China
Currently, the Chinese New Year festival and the subsequent country-wide holidays, the nation firmly under control. It is only in the next week that business as usual will be slowly resumed. As usual, many migrant workers will not return to their jobs, but use the opportunity for a change. The factories are regularly challenging.
China faces a number of challenges. Economic growth of 6.7% is the lowest for more than three decades.
Furthermore, penal duties on other steel products for imports into the EU as well as the massive and massive sanctions announcements from the US make an increase in economic growth for the Chinese.
China’s announcement that the overcapacities in steel production will be reduced are only reluctantly implemented. Although there have been some slight reductions in 2016, there have been hardly any real changes. The reduction is due primarily to the closure of the plant in 2016, independent of the announced measures.
Experts do not give an all-clear for the German market despite slightly higher order figures. Too many factors are countering significant improvements in the economic situation.
Global overcapacity in the steel industry, offshore and shipbuilding, dumping prices from China and the dangers posed by the planned emission rights trading reform can not be offset by the increases in the construction sector.
Münster’s Forecast or Outlook or my view into the cystal ball
I do not allow myself a world-wide or even Germany-wide view. This is what they should do better. We are looking at the development of prices in the area of flanges and forgings.
And here it remains: After the end of the holidays in China, changes are to be expected. I am sticking to my forecast that for material P250GH / C22.8 prices will rise by about 5% from mid-February and will move at this level until the end of February.
In the stainless steel sector, there will not be any significant changes in February as there is no evidence of a significant change.
So that’s for today and I’ll send you the usual
Dynamic greetings from Bremen – let it go well!